British Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Viktor Hovland, Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton

The weather looks proper for this week’s British Open at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland – that is to say soggy with varying wind. That makes betting the event more challenging. Knowing the tee sheets and comparing it to the weather forecast is critical. Winds won’t be crazy, but being on the right side of the draw could play a factor. It looks like that belongs to the AM/PM wave.

The SI Betting panel once again narrowly missed out on a win last week, with Matt Fitzpatrick finishing T4 at the Scottish Open. That coming off an Emiliano Grillo loss in a playoff, our third playoff loss of the year. 

We press on, knowing a big win is coming, perhaps this week where Scottie Scheffler (+450, FanDuel) is the betting favorite followed by Rory McIlroy (+700). 

The betting panel consists of SI golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams, and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

Kirschner is up over 86 units on the year. Williams hit a few outrights, but is currently down 16 units. Giuffra is down 60 units, MacMillan is down 66 units. Schwarb is down 72 units. All three have had playoff losses at this point, so we’re closing in on our first outright. 

This is the perfect time to get hot. Below are our picks. 

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Robert MacIntyre +4000 (DraftKings)

After wins at the Canadian Open and Scottish Open last year and a solo runner-up at this year’s U.S. Open, it’s time for Robert MacIntyre to take the next step in his career with a victory at a major championship. He’s an accurate golfer who knows how to play links-style golf courses in tough conditions. Let’s also remember his coming out party was at the 2019 British Open at Royal Portrush where he finished T6, including one of the best Sunday rounds.

Brian Kirschner: Ryan Fox +9000 (DraftKings) 

I have thought that Open Championship is more open to different types of golfers winning and therefore I want more bullets down the board. I think Ryan Fox at 90/1 is a disrespectful number for his season and his links record. Winner of the Myrtle Beach Classic and RBC Canadian Open, he has joined an exclusive list of multiple time winners of the PGA Tour this season.  Winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and BMW PGA previously, he has shown he can win overseas and in the biggest fields, a great finish and 29 on the back nine in 2019 at Portrush, I love that he has seen the course and knows he can compete.

John Schwarb: Tyrrell Hatton +3500 (DraftKings)

Call me crazy but I’m signing up for the Tyrrell Hatton Experience this week. He was T4 at the U.S. Open last month, squarely in the hunt until a bogey-bogey finish, and also T14 at the Masters. What about British Opens? He has missed some cuts over the years but also has a T5 and T6 to his credit—the latter coming at Royal Portrush in 2019. If one of the blue-bloods (Scottie, Rory) doesn’t get it done this week, I think Hatton will be lurking and ready for a major breakthrough.  

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3000 (FanDuel)

Viktor Hovland has been trending toward another win and his Open Championship history makes me think this is the one. He’s second in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds while also finally showing some positive signs with the short game. Most importantly, his short game has done quite well on links style courses in the past, especially at The Open, when he’s finished Top 13, including a third-place showing, in three previous starts when he’s been in form. Time to get the Norwegian his first major, I say.

Brian Giuffra: Viktor Hovland +3000 (FanDuel) 

Hovland has three finishes inside the Top 13 at the British Open and you could argue he’s playing the best golf of his career right now. Last week at the Scottish Open, he gained over 2.5 strokes around the green and gained strokes putting, normally the weakest part of his game. He lost strokes on approach, but in his previous two events he gained over five strokes on approach. With four Top 5 finishes at majors in his career, I expect him to finally get over the hump and head into the Ryder Cup in top form. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Aaron Rai +12000 (DraftKings)

Aaron Rai’s recent form doesn’t jump off the page, but a T19 finish at the PGA Championship and a T17 finish at the Travelers Championship are some promising recent results. If the conditions get tough, that’s when things are going to open up for Rai. He’s second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 25th in greens in regulation, showing he’s one of the most accurate golfers in the world.

Brian Kirschner: Harris English +12500 (BetMGM)

I really think Harris English is going to win the Open Championship at Portrush. This is eerily similar to Brian Harman at Liverpool. Top 30 golfer in the world with great form and great finishes in past majors. Harris finished runner-up at the PGA Championship in May, and has many great U.S. Open finishes. English also played well at the Scottish last week and has elite iron play. A more accurate driver will win this week and it’s going to be Harris. 

John Schwarb: Russell Henley +7000 (DraftKings)

The odds on the American have gone up as money has poured in elsewhere, which is fine by me. How many more times can Henley be disrespected? The now-world No. 5 can cement his Ryder Cup status with a big week here and he was fifth last year at Royal Troon. After missing the cut at the first two majors this year, he was T10 at the U.S. Open. Long shot bets are always “feel” plays, especially at British Opens, and Henley’s grit will keep him around all weekend.

Cody Williams: Kristoffer Reitan +35000 (DraftKings)

Last major championship of the season, why not take an ultra longshot on Kristoffer Reitan this week. He’s coming off a T13 at the Scottish Open but has also been racking up nice finishes, with a win, a runner-up, another Top 5 and another T13 finish in his last six starts. He was stellar with his ball striking last week, gaining 0.91 strokes per round on approach and 1.03 per round off the tee. That put him Top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green while actually losing 0.07 strokes around the green. Someone with that ball-striking profile at a place like Portrush simply shouldn’t be 350-1.

Brian Giuffra: Harris English +12500 (BetMGM)

This has been the worst major for English thus far, with two missed cuts, a T46 and T50. Yet, his game has never been in better shape. He was T12 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA Championship this year. What I like about his game this week is he’s coming off an event where he lost strokes on approach and still finished T22. His approach game is typically strong, he’s accurate off the tee and we know he’s a good putter. Given his strong performance in majors this year, I think English is primed to contend this week. 

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Marco Penge +8000 (DraftKings)

Marco Penge is sixth in the field this week in true strokes-gained tee to green in opening rounds over the past six months. With a 6:57 am tee time, he’s also on the good side of the tee time splits based on weather. Conditions seem to be easiest in the morning on Thursday, giving him an advantage on the golfers teeing off in the afternoon.

Brian Kirschner: Nick Taylor +9000 (DraftKings) 

Although the Major Championship record is not great, I really like Nick Taylor’s chances this week. He has gained on approach in eight straight starts, with finishes of 4th, 13th, 17th and 22nd. He is playing well-balanced golf right now and I can see them coming into a low score on Thursday

John Schwarb: Rory McIlroy +2000 (DraftKings)

I’m not interested in the Northern Irishman on the outright boards but FOMO keeps me from eliminating him from my card entirely. I like his attitude this week, getting to Royal Portrush early Monday and settling in with an attitude of taking it all in and letting the homeland vibes be a positive more than a pressure point. He jumps out to the early lead come Thursday, then who knows.

Cody Williams: Jordan Smith +12500 (BetMGM)

On the DP World Tour over the past few months, Jordan Smith has gotten a little hot, registering two runner-up finishes, two more Top 10s, and then finishing T22 last week at the Scottish Open. What stands out most, though, is that Smith was actually second last week in SG: Tee-to-Green behind only Scottie Scheffler — he just lost 1.43 strokes putting. I don’t think that putter is going to completely turn around, but if he has a good first round, those tee-to-green numbers make me think, especially in the favorable early wave, that he could set the pace early on Thursday.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +7000 (FanDuel) 

Henley is coming off three straight Top 10 finishes and was fifth at the British Open last year. His approach game has been strong over those events and his putter remains his greatest strength. His lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him on a links course and his typical accuracy should help. When the pairings came out, I pegged this group (Henley, Min Woo Lee, Tyrrell Hatton) as the one where the FRL would come from. Henley provides the best combination of value and form. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Bryson DeChambeau Miss the Cut +230 (DraftKings)

Bryson DeChambeau has been bad at British Opens over the years, missing the cut in three of his seven starts at this event. Links-style golf courses demand artistry and improvisation that he doesn’t have in his bag. He’s also coming off a poor T30 finish at LIV Andalucia, which is a bad sign ahead of this week.

Brian Kirschner: Viktor Hovland Top 20 +135 (DraftKings) 

I worry a tad about the around the green game, but Hovland is playing some seriously great golf right now. Third at the U.S. Open last month and 11th at the Scottish, where he gained over seven strokes on approach. He has a great mix of distance and accuracy and I trust him to lay back off the tee and find himself in the top 20 come Sunday. 

John Schwarb: Patrick Reed Top LIV +1400 (FanDuel)

I picked Tyrrell Hatton to win but if he stumbles and Jon Rahm doesn’t make a run, I think Reed is the third-best option from the rival faction and therefore this price is right. If Captain America thinks he’s Ryder Cup-worthy, he’s got one shot. Let’s see if he makes it interesting.

Cody Williams: Patrick Reed to finish Top 20 +275 (BetMGM)

I’m a bit scared of Jon Rahm in particular to target Reed as the Top LIV players (though I respect the aggression, John!), but I do love his fit this week. Reed has quietly put together one of his best approach play seasons in recent memory, is an accurate driver of the golf ball, and has that wizardly short game. He was solo 10th here back in 2019 and I think it’s simply because Portrush suits him, especially in this form. 

Brian Giuffra: Harris English Top American +4500 (FanDuel) 

I’m going bold with my prop pick on the last major of the season. This could even wind up being a backdoor cover, as we saw English fire a Sunday 65 to finish T2 at the PGA. When he’s playing well, English tends to hover in that -10 range, and that’s about what I think the winning score will be this week. Especially around the greens, English’s game should thrive on this course. 

Final Score Prediction 

• Iain MacMillan: -13
• Brian Kirschner: -16
• John Schwarb: -9
• Cody Williams: -10
• Brian Giuffra: -11

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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