Genesis Scottish Open Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Tommy Fleetwood, Robert McIntyre and Matt Fitzpatrick

The SI Golf betting panel once again lost in a playoff last week, with SI golf betting insider Iain MacMillan’s Emiliano Grillo (+7500 FanDuel) pick faltering against Brian Campbell. That’s our third playoff loss this year, but that just gives us more confidence a big win is incoming. 

This week our focus is on the Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. Most of the best players in the world are teeing it up ahead of next week’s British Open, including Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, who are the betting favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook at +360 and +800 respectively. Defending champion Robert McIntyre is +3000 and one of our picks to win. 

The betting panel is comprised of MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams, and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

Kirschner continues to lead the panel and is up 90 units on the year. Williams hit a few outrights early but is down 12 units. Giuffra, MacMillan and Schwarb, who was also close last week with Max Homa, are down 56, 62 and 68 units respectively. 

We’ve all come close with outrights, especially the last few weeks. The breakthrough is coming. Let’s get it!

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Robert MacIntyre +3300 (FanDuel)

The Scotsman has finished second and first the past two years at the Scottish Open. With the majority of the rest of the top of the field experiencing a slump or some issues with their game, why shouldn’t we expect the defending champion to contend again? His solo second place finish at the U.S. Open tells me he’s rounding into form at the perfect time.

Brian Kirschner: Ryan Fox +6500 (FanDuel)

If Brian Campbell can be a two-time winner this PGA Tour season, then why can't Ryan Fox be a three-time winner? Fox, who made his hay on the DP World Tour and is more than used to the links golf, is a great pick this week at his odds. Winner of the Myrtle Beach Classic and Canadian Open, I can't see him slowing down. Since his win in Canada, he has two straight top 20s at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Elite driver, putter combo can get it done this week and Fox has that. 

John Schwarb: Matt Fitzpatrick +4500 (DraftKings)

As the weather has heated up, so has Matt Fitzpatrick. He was T8 at the PGA Championship and T17 at the Travelers, two events with stacked fields, and T8 at the Rocket Classic. He skipped the John Deere, like most contenders this week, and is equipped for whatever Scottish weather shows up. Plus he’s 73rd in points, so a little urgency is in order. 

Cody Williams: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (FanDuel)

We’re not in the United States this week, which means Tommy Fleetwood has a chance to actually win. Fleetwood has a stellar history at the Renaissance Club, with a runner-up and two additional Top 5 finishes. His ball-striking has been stellar, gaining 1.03 strokes per round in that department over the last 12 rounds (even with a paltry missed cut at the U.S. Open in there) and has been stellar tee-to-green in moderate winds over the past year. With the short game working as well overall, I think he gets redemption from his heartbreak at Travelers. 

Brian Giuffra: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (DraftKings)

The last time we saw Fleetwood, he was coughing away another chance at winning at the Travelers. He still hasn’t won a PGA Tour event. While this is a PGA Tour event, it’s more of a DP World Tour setup. That plays into Fleetwood’s strengths. When handicapping this event, I looked at shots gained approach and shots gained putting. Both were positive at the Travelers for Fleetwood and are, generally, strengths. With two top 10s in this event at this course, the time has come for Tommy Lad to end the winless streak. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Jordan Smith +12000 (FanDuel)

Jordan Smith has quietly had a fantastic season on the DP World Tour, including a solo runner-up finish at last week’s BMW International Open. He now has four top-seven finishes dating back to April and he has a 12th-place finish at the Scottish Open in 2023. The Englishman knows how to handle a links-style course.

Brian Kirschner: Maverick McNealy +8000 (FanDuel) 

Maverick always shines when he is near the coast. Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines – seaside courses are all places that Mav has shined. Mav has only played this event once, but he got on quite nice with a T16 finish back in 2022. McNealy possesses the elite combo of driver, putter this week that is need to win. He has a T5, 37th and T17 in his last three starts while gaining OTT and with the putter in all three. 

John Schwarb: Daniel Berger +9000 (FanDuel)

At 27th in points, Berger has quietly amassed a solid season despite not winning. He’s 18th on the Tour in strokes-gained off the tee and 23rd in approach, two traits that will go a long way in Scotland. Could his first win in four years be this week? The price makes it worth watching.

Cody Williams: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +9000 (FanDuel)

Though the DP World Tour data isn’t as substantive as we get on the PGA Tour, the numbers for Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen are hard to ignore. Not only is he coming off a T12 at the U.S. Open and a T14 last week at the BMW International Open, but the young Dane is seventh in SG: Ball-Striking and fifth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, all while being Top 20 tee-to-green in the wind as well. His lack of distance could hurt, but he’s also stellar on long approach proximity, eighth in the field from 200+ yards out. At 90-1, that level of ball-striking has me hooked.

Brian Giuffra: Harry Hall +7000 (FanDuel) 

Hall seems close to breaking through in a big tournament and has a game that should fit this course. Not the longest off the tee, he’s an exceptional putter and accurate on approach. He’s shown he can go low, which will be needed to win this tournament. The Englishman has three Top 13 finishes in his last four events and seems primed for a big win in a big event soon. 

First-Round Lead 

Iain MacMillan:  Viktor Hovland +6000 (FanDuel)

Viktor Hovland seems to be rounding into form after a solo third place finish at the U.S. Open a few weeks back. Heading into this week, he leads in the field in true strokes gained approach in the opening round over the past three months. 

Brian Kirschner: Marco Penge +9000 (DraftKings) 

I am not going to act like I am an expert on the DP World Tour, but I know that Marco Penge is an elite talent and great driver of the ball. A winner already this season at the Hainan Classic. Marco has three straight top 25 finishes with an 11th, 21st and 25th. One of the best drivers of the ball in the field, I expect him to lift and separate in round one. 

John Schwarb: Thomas Detry +9000 (FanDuel)

Going fishing a little here with Thomas Detry, who won the WM Phoenix Open in February but hasn’t had a ton of great play since, though he has had some good starts including a 66 at the RBC Canadian Open and 69 at the U.S. Open. Last year at the Scottish he opened with 64 en route to a T26. Let’s see if the Belgian can start well again this year at a big price.

Cody Williams: Ryan Fox +7000 (DraftKings)

For better or worse, I don’t trust Ryan Fox over the entirety of a tournament — even though he’s won this year — but I do love the upside he possesses in any given round, especially at a place like this. His bomb-and-gouge style could play well at the Renaissance Club and his ball-striking has been sneaky awesome, ranking fourth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. As a plus player in the wind as well, I’m all over Fox to come out guns-blazing. 

Brian Giuffra: Rory McIlroy +2200 (FanDuel) 

McIlroy tends to get off to hot starts at this course, which certainly suits his game. He shot 65 in the first round last year and 64 the year before when he won. The performance blip he endured around the PGA Championship seems to be a thing of the past. With three weeks off and back closer to home, I think he’ll be ready to take advantage immediately. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Victor Perez Top 20 +300 (FanDuel)

Prior to his missed cut last week, Victor Perez was in some solid form, finishing inside the top 10 at the Canadian Open and inside the top 20 at the U.S. Open. He also posted a top 10 finish at last year’s edition of the Scottish Open. He’s a great bet at 3-1 to post a solid finish this week.

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns Top 20 +160 

Sam Burns is having a great second half of the season after a slow start. Burns lost in playoff in Canada, led going into the final round of the U.S. Open and finished top 20 at The Travelers. He also has some links experience, firing the low round of the day last year at Troon, and has two top 20s at this event.

John Schwarb: Robert MacIntyre +270 Top 10 (FanDuel)

Not overthinking this one. Robert MacIntyre might not be a repeat winner, but last year was no fluke after being run down by Rory in 2023. The native Scot is in his happy place and I see no reason why he won’t hang near the top again.

Cody Williams: Corey Conners Top 10 +350 (BetMGM)

Conners has a T19 and T10 in the last two years at the Scottish Open, which bodes well for him given the ball-striking form he’s displayed of late. While his W/D at the U.S. Open is a tad concerning, he’s had a month to recover. Prior to that, he was Top 20 in SG: Ball-striking over the last 24 rounds among players in this field and has been second best over the past year in SG: Tee-to-Green in moderate winds. He has upside to win, but a strong finish feels much surer.

Brian Giuffra: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 +240 (FanDuel) 

I’m being a bit more aggressive in this market than normal when I go with Top 20 finishes. Fleetwood, as mentioned, has finished in the Top 10 twice in this tournament. He’s also playing his best golf of the season right now. Playing closer to home with some time off after that disappointing loss, I see Fleetwood rising to the challenge this week. 

Winning Score

• Iain MacMillan: -18
• Brian Kirschner: -17
• John Schwarb: -14
• Cody Williams: -17
• Brian Giuffra: -16

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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