John Deere Classic Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Bud Cauley, Kevin Yu and Chris Kirk

It’s July Fourth weekend, which means it’s time for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. What this event lacks in big names it makes up for in low scores. It’s also been a springboard for plenty of up-and-coming players, including Davis Thompson, who won with a tournament-record 28-under par score last year.

Thompson is back in the field this week and so is big hitter Aldrich Potgieter, who won the Rocket Classic last week in a playoff. Other big names are Jason Day and Ben Griffin, who are the top two betting favorites this week. The SI Golf Betting panel is fading the favorites, however, and going a bit outside the box this week. 

The betting panel consists of SI Golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner,, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

It’s been a bit of a cold spell for the panel in terms of outrights, but we’ve had plenty of near misses and are closing in on the bullseye. Kirschner leads the panel and is up over 94 units this year. Williams has hit a few outrights, but is currently down 12 units. Schwarb hit the first-round lead two weeks ago, but is looking for his first outright and is down 64 units. Giuffra leads the prop market, but is down 52 units. MacMillan is down 60 units. 

We’re entering the last month of the regular season with one more major to go. Now’s the time for our hotstreak to start. Let’s make some winning bets. 

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Bud Cauley +4000 (DraftKings)

Bud Cauley comes into this week ranking 15th on the PGA Tour in total strokes-gained this season and 9th in the field in true strokes-gained approach over the past three months, which is going to be huge at an event that’s all about sticking it close and knocking in birdies in bunches. If you want to stay away from the top of the odds list in what looks like a wide open field, Cauley could be your guy at 40-1.

Brian Kirschner: Kevin Yu +3500 (FanDuel)

Taking a bit of a flier on a golfer that I typically do not bet. However, I think this is a great spot for Kevin Yu, who is one of the more underrated golfers in this field. Winner of the Sanderson Farms back in the Fall, Yu is putting together a solid season. Yu has a great mix of distance and accuracy, and is coming off a third and T25 in his last two starts. I think he gets his second PGA Tour win this week. 

John Schwarb: Chris Kirk +3500 (DraftKings)

Chris Kirk was the first man out of the three-way playoff last week in Detroit, which is a positive for me—he’s in form and will be that much hungrier to grab his seventh PGA Tour win. He has a steady history at TPC Deere Run, with four finishes of T23 or better in seven starts with a best of T21 last year. 

Cody Williams: Andrew Putnam +7500 (FanDuel)

While bombers could have their day at TPC Deere Run, accuracy and approach play can be just as vital, which is where Andrew Putnam can thrive. He’s Top 35 in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, but 16th in Proximity from 100-150 yards while sitting fifth in Good Drive rate. Throw in the fact that he’s 28th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass, and he has the balanced blend that I’m looking for this week to capture a victory on the PGA Tour. 

Brian Giuffra: Mark Hubbard +5000 (FanDuel) 

Hubbard isn’t the biggest name on Tour, but he’s quietly playing some strong golf, especially on easier courses. He’s coming off a T13 at the Rocket Classic and also had a T5 at the CJ Cup and T7 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He’s middle of the pack in most Tour metrics, but one of the better putters on tour and makes nearly four birdies per round. That’ll be key in this low-scoring event. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Emiliano Grillo +7500 (FanDuel)

Emiliano Grillo ranks first in the field amongst the pro golfers in true strokes-gained approach over the past three months and I’ve been betting on him a few time recently, hoping we can turn his solid recent form into a win. He finished runner-up at this event in 2022, so he has the track record you want at this course when trying to find a longshot winner.

Brian Kirschner: Matt McCarty +7500 (FanDuel)

Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year last year, McCarty is vying for this second PGA Tour win in Illinois. He is coming off a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T19 at Rocket. He has had a couple other solid finishes this year and I think JDC is a great event for him. Great putter and approach play has been solid recently other than U.S. Open. 75/1 in this field is a great price. 

John Schwarb: Max Homa +10000 (FanDuel)

I know, I know. Max Homa? The player who is 122nd in points and has been searching all year? But the game is in there—remember, he was T12 at the Masters and shot a second-round 64 at the PGA before fading on the weekend. His odds are high for a reason, but he’s still one of the most talented players in this field, and when he does get back to winning there will be a nice payout for someone. The 100-1 threshold works for me as a longshot.   

Cody Williams: Chan Kim +12500 (Caesars)

Chan Kim finished T12 at the John Deere Classic a year ago and got out of a cold spell with a T19 at the Rocket Classic last week as he gained across the board. He ranks 22nd in Birdie or Better Percentage over the last 24 rounds, and has a propensity for popping up on leaderboards in weak fields on low-scoring golf courses. There’s a reason he’s 125-1 after missing four of his last five cuts, but there is upside here that makes the price well worth it. 

Brian Giuffra: Cameron Champ +8000 (FanDuel) 

I’ve been backing Champ on finishing props the last two times he’s played on Tour and he’s delivered, with a T9 at the RBC Canadian Open and T19 at the Rocket Classic last week. He’s one of the longest drivers on tour and an exceptional putter. He also has plenty of motivation to get his fourth win on Tour, as he still doesn’t have full playing privileges. It seems like his game is turning around at the perfect time for a great performance at a course that suits him. 

First-Round Lead 

Iain MacMillan: Andrew Putnam +8000 (FanDuel)

Putnam is coming into this week off back-to-back top 10 finishes, seemingly starting to round back into the form he had early in 2025. I don’t yet trust him to close out a full tournament win, but he’s currently fourth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 68.07, so a first round leader bet seems to be the way to go with the American.

Brian Kirschner: Chris Kirk +5000 (DraftKings)

He is staying at the same house as the past three winners of this event and is coming off a top 3 finish in his last start. Those two stats have produced two of the last three winners here. Kirk is someone that can shake off the disappointment of last week and go out and start with a fast first round. 

John Schwarb: Davis Thompson +5000 (DraftKings)

Not overthinking this one—I’ll take the defending champion, who set the tournament scoring record. There’s also some urgency here for Thompson, sitting 70th in points with only the top 70 making the playoffs. 

Cody Williams: Michael Thorbjornsen +4500 (FanDuel)

Michael Thorbjornsen is trending toward making some real noise at 23 years old, which many golf fans have been waiting on. His T4 at the Rocket Classic wasn’t a fluke last week. He’s been ironing out kinks in his short game while maintaining an elite ability off the tee and improving on approach. More importantly, he was T2 at the John Deere last year and T17 as an amateur the year prior. I’m still not sure the game is ready for him to win, but a surge to a first-round lead wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. 

Brian Giuffra: Chris Gotterup +5500 (DraftKings) 

Gotterup is another big hitter who has a history of fast starts, as evidenced by a 63 at the Puerto Rico Open. He’s 12th on Tour in SG: Off the Tee and has gained on approach in three of the last four events. His putting can be streaky, which is why I’m not betting him to win outright. But for one round, it feels possible. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Michael Kim Missed Cut +160 (FanDuel)

Michael Kim won this event in 2018, but then followed it up with four-straight missed cuts at the John Deere Classic. His form isn’t extremely promising coming into this week’s version of the tournament. He has been making cuts, but he has posted a top 25 finish just once since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. I’m going to fade the former winner this time around.

Brian Kirschner: Max McGreevy +125 Top 40 (DraftKings)

Look, it's the John Deere Classic, writing up Max McGreey as a top 40 play is par for the course. However, he had an amazing season on the KFT last year and I believe is waiting for his breakthrough this year on the PGA Tour. With top finishes of T4 at Cognizant, T20 at The Players and T15 at Byron, I think he has the upside to finish top 40 this week. 

John Schwarb: Dylan Frittelli +160 Make the Cut (DraftKings)

I’m looking for some 4th of July action so how about some cutline drama? Dylan Frittelli won the John Deere in his first try in 2019 and this is just his second PGA Tour start of the year, but I say he gets good vibes to be back in Silvis and plays the weekend. Getting better than 3-to-2 on my money goes well with my holiday cookout.

Cody Williams: Kevin Roy Top 20 +250 (BetMGM)

What Kevin Roy has been doing is too good to pass up heading into the John Deere Classic. He’s coming off T8 and T18 finishes in his last two starts, while gaining 1.8 strokes ball-striking per round in each of those. He’s both accurate and above-average in length off the tee, while having Top 45 Proximity numbers on approach from both 50-100 and 100-150 yards. Quietly, Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface as well. Getting +250 for a Top 20 with ties included seems like a safe bet when you factor all of that into the equation.

Brian Giuffra: Mark Hubbard Top 20 +230 (DraftKings) 

In a weaker field, Hubbard stands out as someone who should compete for four rounds. He has five Top 20 finishes in 19 events this season and all of them came in these kinds of fields. He hasn’t fared as well on tougher courses, but TPC Deere Run is anything but that. I’m betting him to win, so clearly I think he’ll at least compete. These odds are solid for that reason. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan -20
• Brian Kirschner -22 
• John Schwarb -23
• Cody Williams -24
• Brian Giuffra: -22

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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