U.S. Open Live Odds After Round 3: Sam Burns Enters Final Round as Favorite to Win First Career Major

Three rounds of the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club are in the books, and things have not shaken out as people expected.

The course has lived up to expectations in terms of difficulty, but the names atop the leaderboard heading into Round 4 are names that few expected to be in contention. Meanwhile, golfers like Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Scottie Scheffler are either already home, or have little to no chance of making a Sunday run.

Let's take a look at the live odds heading into the final round and then I'll give you my best bet.

U.S. Open Live Odds Before Round 4

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Sam Burns +170
• Adam Scott +320
• J.J. Spaun +330
• Viktor Hovland +650
• Carlos Ortiz +2000
• Tyrrell Hatton +2200
• Scottie Scheffler +5500
• Thriston Lawrence +8000
• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +10000
• Cameron Young +12000

Who Will Win the U.S. Open?

I gave out Viktor Hovland +550 before the third round, so I'm going to ride that bet and sprinkle on another golfer on the oddsboard before the final round.

According to Justin Ray of the Twenty First Group, the winner of the U.S. Open has been within four strokes entering the final round in 26 straight years. If we stick to that trend, there are just five golfers with a chance to win on Sunday: Sam Burns, Adam Scott, J.J. Spaun, Viktor Hovland, and Carlos Ortiz.

Considering I'm already holding a Hovland ticket, I'm going to add the Australian, Adam Scott, to my portfolio at +320.

The talk surrounding Oakmont heading into this week was that great driving would be what would seperate the contenders from the pretenders, and Adam Scott has been the best driver of the five golfers within four strokes of the lead, gaining +1.95 strokes per round with his driver. On top of that, he's been gaining +2.1 strokes per round with his approach play.

Of the five truly in contention based on historic results, Scott is gaining the fewest strokes around the greens, but I look at chipping as largely a volatile stat that could change each round, especially considering he has gained significant strokes around the greens in his three starts before the U.S. Open.

The 44-year-old winning his second career major 12 years after capturing the 2013 Masters would be quite the story, and entering the final round, he's the only golfer who has yet to post a score above par this week.

I'll ride with the Australian on Sunday.

Pick: Adam Scott (+320) via FanDuel

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