2025 British Open Betting Models, Picks: Precision Reigns Supreme at Royal Portrush

Set the coffee pot for the wee hours of the morning, because we’re heading to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland for the British Open this week. It’s going to be an early start for fans in the United States, but it should be well worth it with all of the drama and the fantastic return to links-style golf that should excite golf fans far and wide. 

Royal Portrush Golf Club in Portrush, County Antrim, Northern Ireland was established in 1888 with two full 18-hole courses, both designed by Harry Colt, eventually being included in the club, but with the Open being played on the championship course, the Dunluce Links. It returned to hosting the British Open for only the second time in its history back in 2019, which was won by Shane Lowry. The only other time it hosted was back in 1951. Having said that, the 7,337-yard course isn’t overly long but remains highly challenging with elevated and shaved greens that demand precision, not to mention links-style fairways with tough run-offs, in-course out-of-bounds stakes and more demands for accuracy. The elevated greens aren’t as massive as some other Open Championship venues, but still remain slow and undulating for their own unique test. 

There’s a lot to consider when it comes to a course like Royal Portrush and an event like the Open. We’re trying to take it all into account, but that starts with a handful of crucial stats we need in order to identify a winner who can hold the Claret Jug come Sunday.

Key Stats for the Royal Portrush

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

With the elevated greens and the demand for accuracy all around at Portrush, you have to start simply with the recent form in terms of approach play. This venue isn’t impossible to score at, but you have to be in the right positions to take advantage of that, which starts on approach.

1. Scottie Scheffler (1.40)
2. Viktor Hovland (1.20)
3. Henrik Stenson (1.09)
4. Shane Lowry (1.00)
5. Kristoffer Reitan (0.99)

Driving accuracy over the last 36 rounds

Again, we’re looking for accuracy this week when it comes to every part of ball striking. Portrush isn’t overly long, but it does demand you being in the right spots, especially with things like in-course O.B. looming. We can’t have guys blasting it off the planet and expect them to succeed.

1. Daniel van Tonder (82.1%)
2. Aaron Rai (77.1%)
3. Henrik Stenson (73.8%)
4. Collin Morikawa (72.1%)
5. Sergio Garcia (72.1%)

Strokes-gained putting on slow greens last 36 rounds over past two years

While the greens at Portrush aren’t necessarily the same type of test that we see at other Open Championship venues, namely because the size isn’t as massive, they are still slower than most we see on the PGA Tour. The ability to putt well, or even spike, on slower greens can be a huge advantage this week. 

1. Brian Campbell (2.06)
2. Louis Oosthuizen (1.41)
3. Elvis Smylie (1.32)
4. Shane Lowry (1.15)
5. Bud Cauley (1.09)

Bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds

One of the big things with the ability to score at Portrush is to also be able to limit the damage. If you do miss a green, if you do end up in the wrong spot off the tee, how is your ability to recover? That makes bogey avoidance something that will come into play this week. 

1. Matteo Manassero (11.8%)
2. Harry Hall (12.5%)
3. Lucas Herbert (12.5%)
4. Chris Gotterup (13.2%)
5. Scottie Scheffler (13.4%)

Open Championship model rankings for the Royal Portrush

Accuracy off the tee and on approach are going to lead the way with our model at the Open Championship, but there’s much more going into the entirety of the statistical output. It starts with strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds (15%) and driving accuracy in the last 36 rounds (15%) with the heaviest weight. That’s followed by strokes-gained putting on slow greens in the last 36 rounds (10%), bogey avoidance in the last 24 rounds (10%), strokes-gained total in majors for the last five years (10%), strokes-gained total at Royal St. Georges, Royal Liverpool, Royal Troon and Pebble Beach the last five years (10%), strokes-gained around the green in the last 24 rounds (7.5%), good drive percentage in the last 24 rounds (7.5%), 3-putt avoidance on slow greens in the last 36 round (5%), sand-save percentage in the last 24 rounds (5%) and strokes-gained total in windy conditions over the last two years (5%). Here are the Top 10 players that model spits out to us this week.

1. Shane Lowry
2. Jon Rahm
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Russell Henley
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Tyrrell Hatton
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Adam Scott

2025 Open Championship picks

Jon Rahm (+1200, DraftKings)

There might be some people who don’t fully realize just how close Jon Rahm has been in his career at the Open Championship. Since 2019, when he finished T11 at Portrush, that is actually his second-worst finish (behind T34 in 2022) at the Open as he’s also registered a T3, a T2 and a T7 over that span. Now, he comes in looking like he’s also ready to get a win at this tournament. 

Rahm might have the most complete major resumé in 2025 for someone who didn’t win. He was T14 at Augusta, T8 at the PGA and T7 at the U.S. Open. More importantly, whether on LIV or in majors, Rahm has been showing the right type of game. He can club down to find more accuracy with the driver, but has gained at least 0.6 strokes on approach in five of his last six events, including 1.53 this past week at Andalucia and 2.03 at the U.S. Open. We also know how stellar his short game can be, which should be another advantage. 

Furthermore, the move to LIV seemingly hasn’t put out the spark in Rahm that made him such a big-game hunter. He seems like he’s due to finally add another major win to his credit, and Portrush should suit him quite well to be able to accomplish that. 

Viktor Hovland (+3000, FanDuel)

Viktor Hovland has been trending for much of the season, whether it was the win at the Valspar or a solo third finish at Oakmont last month. He’s still looking to break through and win a major championship, but it’s long felt like the Open could be the right place, especially since, when in form, he has three top-13 finishes in the British Open in as many starts. Now, he comes in showing all the right signs. 

For starters, Hovland is second in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds, keeping pace with Scottie Scheffler in that department. One of the bigger issues has been, at least of late, that he’s been a little erratic with the driver. However, he was 8% better than the field average in Scotland last week in terms of driving accuracy. More importantly, his well-documented short game woes have long been mitigated in Open Championship conditions and he putts more consistently on slower greens (including gaining strokes at the Scottish last week). 

To me, the picture is painted that Hovland is coming into Portrush with the exact right form to succeed at a major where he’s already been knocking on the door. He feels like the next young gun to be able to break down the major wall in front of him and hoist the Claret Jug. 

Justin Rose (+8000, FanDuel)

The overall form for Justin Rose since being in a playoff at the Masters has, to put it bluntly, been absolutely brutal. Until last week, he’d made just two cuts in six starts and didn’t finish inside the top 40 in either. But then came the Scottish Open last week and the switch seemed to flip with a solo sixth finish. 

Obviously, a lot of the metrics overall in the model don’t favor Rose because he was playing so poorly prior to last week. However, he finished T20 at Royal Portrush back in 2019 and obviously tackled Troon last year to finish T2 and be in the mix until the end. Now, he comes in after Renaissance and gains strokes in every category, including 2.17 with his ball striking. In that type of form, especially if his approach play is comfortable at Portrush, he’s a great, sneaky fit to contend this week. 

When you then look at how well he’s putted on slow greens and with his recent record in both majors and on Open Championship and links-style venues, Rose shouldn’t be at 80-1 this week, but we’ll gladly take a swing at that. 

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