Week 16 MLB Prospect Watch: Nolan McLean Surging, Kyle Harrison Slipping

As we hit Week 16 of the fantasy baseball season, prospect momentum is shifting fast—some arms are heating up, while others are trending the wrong way. From Nolan McLean's dominant stretch to injury updates on Grayson Rodriguez and Shane Bieber, here's your must-read breakdown of pitching prospects to watch.

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

After a dull 18 starts at AA in 2024 (2-8 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 81.2 innings), McLean has been a much better pitcher over two levels of minor league baseball this season. He opened the year with success over five starts at AA (1.37 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts over 26.1 innings). 

Over 11 games after his promotion to AAA, McLean posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. His arm screams major league ready after two elite outings in July (two runs, 14 baserunners, and 20 strikeouts over 11.0 innings).

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox

Houck has made five rehab starts between AA and AAA over the past three weeks. He struggled over his first three games (nine runs, 16 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.1 innings with five strikeouts). His arm showed improvement over his last two games (one run, eight baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 9.1 innings). 2025 hasn’t gone well for Houck this year, so his risk outweighs his reward at this point of the year.

Kyle Harrison, Boston Red Sox

The excitement of Harrison helping fantasy teams after his trade to Boston has been drifting away in each of his three starts at AAA. He allowed 11 runs, 25 baserunners, and five home runs over 13.0 innings with 10 strikeouts. His fastball (93.5 mph) was down in his last outing, which isn’t a good sign. The Red Sox continue to work with Harrison, leading to a new slider and a rebound in the usage of his changeup.

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Hope returned to Chandler’s right arm after an uptick start on July 4th (no runs, seven baserunners, and six strikeouts over six innings). Over the past month, he battled his command (14 walks over 18.2 innings), leading to a 5.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts. Will Pittsburgh call him up this year?

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Last week in the high-stakes market, I dumped Henderson in multiple leagues, ending his buy-and-hold ride for me. His release was driven by three consecutive poor starts at AAA (11 runs, 19 baserunners, and five home runs over 14.1 innings with 13 strikeouts). 

As is the nature of fantasy baseball, Henderson regained his form in his next outing (two runs and six hits over five innings with five strikeouts). Overall, Henderson has been exceptional between AAA and the majors (11-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts over 83.2 innings). 

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

The lust for Painter in 2025 has been slipping away in his recent starts at AAA. He allowed nine runs, 17 baserunners, and three home runs over his last 10.1 innings with 10 strikeouts. As a result, his AAA stats (28 runs, 74 baserunners, and nine home runs over 50.2 innings with 55 strikeouts) have drifted in the wrong direction.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

Over the last week or so, Rodriguez threw a couple of bullpen sessions, putting him closer to a rehab assignment. I don’t expect him back before August, and I’m not confident his body will be able to hold up enough to help Baltimore in 2025.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians slowed down Bieber’s rehab work over the past month. After a bullpen session and a couple of rounds of batting practice, he looks poised to begin a rehab assignment to build up his arm strength. Bieber will need multiple appearances before returning to the majors.

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros

The road back to the Astros' starting rotation began on July 7th at their Rookie Complex. He served up a solo home run over two innings with four strikeouts. His last start in Houston came on May 1st in 2023 due to TJ surgery.

Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins

The Padres had high hopes for Snelling after drafting him 39th overall in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft. He struggled in 2024 between AA and AAA (5.30 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 108 strikeouts over 110.1 innings), leading to a midseason trade to Miami. Snelling was on a similar path this season after his first five appearances (14 runs, 38 baserunners, and 28 strikeouts over 21.2 innings).

His left arm turned the corner over his previous seven starts, resulting in a 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts over 40.1 innings at AA. The Marlins should promote him to AAA soon.

Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers gave Myers six games to prove his worth this year, but finding home plate (10 walks over 20.0 innings) was a problem, highlighted by his losing ERA (4.95) and WHIP (1.80). Despite his failure, he gave up more than two runs in only one start, while also pitching more than five innings only once.

After some struggles at AAA (13 runs, 34 baserunners, and three home runs over 22.0 innings with 22 strikeouts), Myers regained his form over his last four starts. He allowed three runs (all in one game) with 19 hits, five walks, and 24 strikeouts over 23.0 innings. The Brewers should have him on speed dial when they need another starting pitcher.

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